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June 1, 2010 Greece - A Strategic Default?
Don Creech

 

 

British economists have advised Greece to leave the Euro and default on its debt. There is strong similarity to US homeowners who are so upside down with their mortgages that the economics of continuing to make payments is financially irrational. Yes, it is financially irresponsible, but being responsible won’t improve the situation in the foreseeable future.

Greece could create a new currency and reaffirm its debt. That would be like going to bankruptcy court and agreeing to continued payments. Bankruptcy is to clear debt or reasonably reorganize it with a do-able plan. So far, there is no plan for Greece that works and keeps the Euro in tact.

Extracting Greece from the Euro means an explosion in their debt ratio. It means German and French banks become “financially challenged” as if their Greek bonds are investment quality. Incidentally, we haven’t had an update on Timothy Geithner’s  “solution” since he left for Europe on May 20th. Perhaps, reality was more difficult than theory.

With US homeowners, if you know someone who has “strategically defaulted” the stigma dissipates. The more you know, the easier it is to accept default and restart your financial life.

If Greece makes the decision to depart, which of the P.I.I.G.S. is next? Spain? Italy? Ireland has already chomped down on the bitter pill of austerity. It might survive. Portugal?

As for the market, remember it is global. We do not know where all of the interconnectedness within the global banking system lies. Do you want to bet on the Bulls stampeding to new highs?

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Don Creech
Don Creech

Don hosts the weekly Don Creech Radio Show (www.DonCreech.com) discussing current events affecting your financial well-being. Don is the founder and co-owner of Investor Resources, Inc. He has attended Grossmont Community College, San Diego State University, Bellevue Community College and City University.

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